North Texas throws for 347 yards a game, second in FBS. Navy runs on 81% of its plays. Grady Mayhew-Ochoa calls it free jazz against a slow, steady march. Cmdr. (Ret.) Annabel Merriweather points out that marches win wars.
North Texas (4-2) at Navy (2-4), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. It's an American game and Homecoming in Annapolis, with the Brigade in the stands. DraftKings has North Texas Mean Green −2.5 with a total of 62.5. My card: North Texas Mean Green −2.5, Over 62.5, and a final of North Texas Mean Green 34, Navy Midshipmen 30.
Grady speaks for North Texas, who hears every offense like an indie record. "Tayven Jackson went 24 of 31 for 349 yards and five touchdowns against Charlotte. That's a full album, Commander. He's third in FBS in passing yards, and Jahiem White has nine rushing touchdowns."
Annabel speaks for Navy and reads the option like a nautical chart. "Respectfully, sailor, Jackson Gutierrez ran for 232 yards and three scores against Tulsa. We run for 297.8 yards a game, fourth in FBS. And we're 2-0 at home."
Why North Texas? The matchup through the air is lopsided. The Mean Green score 42.2 points a game, fifth in FBS, and Navy's pass defense ranks 113th. North Texas also had a week off to get ready for the option. Navy is minus-6 in turnover margin, 126th. My final has North Texas by four.
The caveat is real, and Annabel will tell you about it. All four Navy losses came on the road, by a combined 21 points. At home, the Mids haven't lost. Gutierrez is a handful, and Jordan Collins has 189 yards on just five catches. North Texas also gives up 70.2 penalty yards a game, 115th, and its run defense ranks 73rd.
Why the Over? Navy just lost 38-34 at UTSA, so the Mids can score in bunches too, and North Texas scores on almost everybody. My 34-30 adds up to 64, a point and a half over 62.5. It's a big number, but the 2007 meeting finished 74-62.
Now the room, and this is the friendliest room of the week. Four voices are on North Texas, and all four call the Over. The Formula and Letdown Watch both have 34-29. Next Man Up has 35-31 and likes the Over most. Follow The Money likes both the side and the total. In The Trenches sits this one out.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-five to 31. Four of us on the same side and the same total. Somebody frame this."
The Formula answered: "Thirty-four to 29. Frame it fast."
Follow The Money added: "North Texas and the Over. For once I'm in the crowd. Enjoy it. It won't last."
Letdown Watch: "Same 34-29 as The Formula. The only thing I'm worried about is the Brigade. That crowd is loud."
Bottom of the card: the second-best passing offense in the country against a pass defense ranked 113th, with a week of rest against the option. Sincere respect to the Brigade, as Grady says. I'll lay the 2.5 and take the Over.
North Texas Mean Green 34, Navy Midshipmen 30. North Texas Mean Green cover the 2.5. Over 62.5.