New Mexico's defense has 21 takeaways and 19 sacks in six games. North Dakota State's defense has allowed 79 points in seven games. Paloma Begaye-Ortiz, a New Mexico fan who flies a hot-air balloon in the Balloon Fiesta, is bringing green-chile enchiladas. Inga Halvorsen, a North Dakota State fan and agricultural economist, is bringing tater tot hotdish.
North Dakota State (6-1) at New Mexico (5-1), Saturday at 10:00 p.m. ET on CW at University Stadium in Albuquerque. It's a Mountain West game, Pack Week Homecoming and the first meeting on record between the schools. DraftKings has New Mexico Lobos −4 with a total of 42.5. My card: New Mexico Lobos −4, Over 42.5, and a final of New Mexico Lobos 26, North Dakota State Bison 19.
Paloma speaks for New Mexico. "Tavian Combs has four interceptions. That's a balloon at full burn. Scottre Humphrey has eight rushing touchdowns. And every one of our five wins came by 11 points or more."
Inga speaks for North Dakota State. "Oh, hon. Jackson Williams caught a missed 57-yard field goal and ran it back 100 yards against Nevada. He also ran for a score and threw a touchdown pass. Three ways to score in one game. Oh for cute. That young man gets extra hotdish."
Why New Mexico by more than four? The takeaways. The Lobos have 21 of them with only four giveaways, and Nathan Hayes has five interceptions. New Mexico has won all five of its wins by 11 or more, and its only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma. The Lobos are rested after a week off and home for Homecoming. My final has them by seven.
The caveat is that North Dakota State is the real deal. The Bison have two shutouts, allow about 11.3 points a game, and their only loss was 13-7 at UNLV. Marion Moore has four interceptions too. New Mexico's offense doesn't overwhelm anybody. Toa Fa'avae has nearly 700 passing yards, so if Humphrey can't run, this becomes a field-goal game.
Why the Over with two defenses this good? Because defenses that force turnovers set up short fields. North Dakota State just scored 31 on Nevada with help from a 100-yard return. My 26-19 adds up to 45, two and a half over 42.5.
Now the room, and three voices back New Mexico. The Formula has 27-18 and Next Man Up has 27-19. Both like the Lobos and the Over. Letdown Watch has 26-21 and likes the Over. In The Trenches sits this one out. Follow The Money skips the side and likes the Under.
Follow The Money opened: "New Mexico allows about 10.5 a game. The Bison allow about 11.3. You three want points in a game where nobody scores?"
The Formula answered: "Twenty-seven to 18. Twenty-one takeaways means short fields. Short fields mean points."
Next Man Up added: "Twenty-seven to 19. It's 10 p.m. Eastern."
Letdown Watch: "Twenty-six to 21. The forecast is 58 degrees. A heat wave for Fargo."
Bottom of the card: a rested home defense that feasts on mistakes, a road quarterback with five interceptions, and a Homecoming crowd under the Neon U. A whole new sky, Inga. I'll lay the four.
New Mexico Lobos 26, North Dakota State Bison 19. New Mexico Lobos cover the 4. Over 42.5.