Lem Coxwell teaches history in Walker County, and he swears every Texas tale has a turn. Esperanza Lujan-Tafoya grew up on a chile farm in Las Cruces, and she says the turn is getting roasted.
New Mexico State (2-4) at Sam Houston (1-5), Wednesday at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Huntsville. DraftKings has New Mexico State Aggies −3 with a total of 44.5. My card: Sam Houston Bearkats +3, Over 44.5, and a final of New Mexico State Aggies 24, Sam Houston Bearkats 23.
Esperanza speaks for New Mexico State, and she starts with the ground game. "James Jones has 599 yards on 92 carries. Gabe Peterson has 4.5 sacks. We had 13 full days off, Lem. We are rested, and we are hot."
Lem speaks for Sam Houston, and he points to the pass defense. "Ma'am, we give up 137.8 passing yards a game, fourth in the nation. Only Texas Tech has topped 200 through the air against us. That's not a defense, that's a chapter in a history book."
The Aggies' case is real. NM State has 15 sacks, second in Conference USA, and Sam Houston has allowed 17, the second-most in the league. The Bearkats just lost 16-3 to Western Kentucky and were held to 177 yards, with Landyn Locke going 13 of 30.
So why Sam Houston? Because a field goal is a lot to give in a game this close, and my final has the Aggies by one. New Mexico State hasn't named its starting quarterback. Trey Hedden has six interceptions, and Adam Damante went 9 of 22 in a 22-3 loss at FIU. That's not an offense that pulls away from anybody. On the other side, Locke is 129 of 205 for 1,418 yards and 11 touchdowns this year. At home, with the points, the Bearkats are the side.
Why the Over? This one is honest: my 24-23 adds up to 47, two and a half points over 44.5. Sam Houston throws for 247.0 yards a game under Phil Longo, and Jones entered the FIU game leading the league in rushing. A couple of long drives and a couple of field goals do the job.
Now the room, and everybody who picks a side picks Sam Houston. Next Man Up goes further than I do: Sam Houston 24-22, outright. Letdown Watch has New Mexico State 25-23, takes Sam Houston, and likes the Over. The Formula has 24-23 Aggies, the exact same final as mine, and In The Trenches likes Sam Houston too. Follow The Money skips the side and is the lone voice for the Under.
Letdown Watch started it: "Follow The Money, everybody else in here wants points and you're out there alone. Did you even watch the Aggies' pass rush?"
Follow The Money didn't blink: "Lonely is fine. Lonely and right is better."
The Formula sat back: "Same score as the boss. Somebody in here knows what they're doing."
Bottom of the card: a home underdog with a pass defense that travels, a road team with a quarterback question, and a field goal that looks bigger than it should. Lem gets his turn. Esperanza gets her chile. I'll take the points.
New Mexico State Aggies 24, Sam Houston Bearkats 23. Sam Houston Bearkats cover the 3. Over 44.5.