NC State is flying across the country for a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff, and Ruff Pegram has measured every mile. Iggy Yamamoto-Ross has already pitched an app to make the trip shorter.
NC State (3-3) at Stanford (3-4), Friday at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN at Stanford Stadium. It's an ACC game, Heroes Appreciation night on The Farm, and the Wolfpack's first trip ever to Stanford. DraftKings has NC State Wolfpack −7 with a total of 55.5. My card: NC State Wolfpack −7, Over 55.5, and a final of NC State Wolfpack 33, Stanford Cardinal 24.
Ruff speaks for NC State, a Wake County engineer who grills in the same Carter-Finley lot every home game. "Wolfpack, howl! That's my one howl, engineer-approved. CJ Bailey completed his first 16 passes against Wake Forest, and we had two weeks to recalibrate."
Iggy speaks for Stanford, the founder of three failed apps. "Love the energy, Ruff. Micah Ford ran for 179 yards and four touchdowns against Elon. That tied the school record. Ship it twice."
Ford is the real deal, with 529 yards and eight touchdowns. But the NC State case is about the other side of the ball. Stanford's defense allows 452.0 yards a game, 134th in FBS, and opponents score on 96.4% of red-zone trips, 136th. NC State converts 51.1% of its third downs, 15th. Bailey has 1,507 yards and nine touchdowns, and Keenan Jackson has 27 catches for 400 yards and five scores.
The worry is how the Pack finished at Wake. NC State led 14-10 at halftime, then gave up the last 31 points and ran for only 15 yards in a 38-14 loss. Dave Doeren said afterward the team needed some injured players back, and the bye gave them time.
Why NC State by more than seven? The red zone. Stanford's offense needs Ford to answer every touchdown. All three Stanford wins have come at home, so the Cardinal won't fold, but my final has the Pack by nine.
Why the Over? The NC State defense allows 27.7 points a game, so Stanford will get its share, and NC State's offense against that red-zone defense is a scoreboard waiting to happen. My 33-24 adds up to 57, a point and a half over 55.5. The last meeting finished 59-28.
Now the room, and Stanford gets no love. The Formula has NC State 33-25 and the Over. Next Man Up has the biggest number, 35-25, and likes both NC State and the Over. Letdown Watch has 32-24 and calls the Over. Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out.
Next Man Up opened: "Follow The Money, a defense that gives up 452.0 yards a game and you won't even pick a side? You fell asleep before kickoff."
Follow The Money answered: "It's 10:30 at night on the East Coast. I'm saving my energy for a game that needs me."
Letdown Watch added: "Thirty-two to 24 and the Over. That's called optimism."
Bottom of the card: a rested road team with a hot quarterback against a home defense that can't stop anybody in the red zone. Stay up late, Ruff. Lay the seven.
NC State Wolfpack 33, Stanford Cardinal 24. NC State Wolfpack cover the 7. Over 55.5.