Two 2-4 teams, a Tuesday night in Newark, and a librarian who has been shushing people for a living for years. Tonight Hen Lofland gets to yell, and she plans to.
Missouri State (2-4) at Delaware (2-4), Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU at Delaware Stadium. It's a Conference USA game and Senior Day for the Blue Hens. DraftKings has Delaware Blue Hens −3 with a total of 52.5. My card: Delaware Blue Hens −3, Over 52.5, and a final of Delaware Blue Hens 29, Missouri State Bears 24.
Hen speaks for Delaware, and she has the quarterback file open. "Nick Minicucci leads us with 838 passing yards, but he has missed two straight games. So we sent in Tyler Bell, and he threw for 306 yards and then caught a touchdown pass. I've shelved him under reference."
Clementine Bilyeu speaks for Missouri State, and she paddled in from the Ozarks. "Hen, honey, Isaiah Myers has 27 catches for 554 yards and five touchdowns. He caught seven for 135 and both scores last week. When the river's low, he's the paddle."
That last week matters. The Bears beat Kennesaw State 24-21 when Yousef Obeid kicked a 20-yard field goal as time expired. It was Missouri State's first FBS win under Casey Woods. Delaware, meanwhile, led 30-26 with 9:57 left at Middle Tennessee and lost 33-30.
Why Delaware? The Blue Hens throw it for 271.0 yards a game, 29th in FBS, and Missouri State's defense gives up 430.8 yards a game, 127th. Delaware also has 18 sacks in six games, which is bad news for a Missouri State team that hasn't named its starting quarterback. My final has Delaware by five, so the home team clears the 3.
The caveat: Delaware runs for just 94.0 yards a game, 135th, so it lives and dies with the pass. And Delaware hasn't announced Minicucci's status. If the backup has an off night, a field goal decides it, and the Bears just proved they can win that way.
Why the Over? The Delaware pass defense ranks 125th, and Myers is exactly the kind of receiver who makes that number hurt. Put a good passing offense against a leaky defense on both sides and you get points. My 29-24 adds up to 53, half a point over 52.5.
Now the room. Next Man Up is all the way in, with Delaware 31-24 and the Over. Letdown Watch has Delaware 30-23 and likes the Blue Hens too. The Formula has Delaware 27-25, a two-point game, so it takes Missouri State +3 with the Under, and In The Trenches likes the Bears. Follow The Money sits this one out.
Next Man Up started it: "The Formula, you've got Delaware winning and you still took the Bears? That's not a pick, that's a coin flip."
The Formula shot back: "And you've got Delaware scoring 31 with the quarterback still a question. Read the fine print, friend."
Follow The Money just smiled. "I'm sitting this one out. Somebody has to keep score while you three argue."
Bottom of the card: the home team, a passing game that fits the matchup, and a Senior Day crowd. Clementine's float is fun, but Hen's library is open late.
Delaware Blue Hens 29, Missouri State Bears 24. Delaware Blue Hens cover the 3. Over 52.5.