UCLA is 6-0 under a first-year coach, and it just won with a backup quarterback making his first start. Kenzie Rhee would greenlight that script. Shay Kowalczyk caught softball in East Lansing and says the Spartans just need one more strike.
Michigan State (2-5) at No. 9 UCLA (6-0), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS at the Rose Bowl. It's a Big Ten game and Homecoming in Pasadena, with UCLA honoring its 1966 Rose Bowl team, the one that beat Michigan State. DraftKings has UCLA Bruins −14 with a total of 46.5. My card: Michigan State Spartans +14, Over 46.5, and a final of UCLA Bruins 31, Michigan State Spartans 18.
Kenzie speaks for UCLA, a Westwood film-school producer who storyboards every drive. "Wayne Knight has 11 touchdowns and a rushing score in all six games, darling. That's a franchise player. And our defense lets opponents convert only 25.9% of third downs."
Shay speaks for Michigan State, a catcher who frames every defensive call like a pitch sequence. "We led Northwestern 21-13 in the fourth and lost on a field goal with two seconds left. Before that, we lost by one in overtime to Illinois. Framed it. One more strike."
That's the case for the Spartans in one quote. They lose close. Pat Fitzgerald said the staff has to coach better to get over the hump, and Michigan State gives up just 36.3 penalty yards a game, seventh in FBS. UCLA gives up 83.2, 133rd.
There's also the quarterback question in Westwood. Nico Iamaleava missed the Wisconsin game, and UCLA hasn't announced his status. Ty Dieffenbach went 22 of 33 for 264 yards in a 17-7 win.
The caveat is real. UCLA is plus-10 in turnover margin, fifth in FBS, and runs for 231 yards a game. Michigan State's red-zone defense ranks 135th. If the Bruins get close, they score. My final has them winning by 13, a point short of the number.
Why the Over? Knight against a Michigan State run defense ranked 67th, plus a red-zone defense that doesn't stop anybody, means UCLA gets its points. Alessio Milivojevic has seven touchdown passes and will find room against a UCLA pass defense ranked 47th. My 31-18 adds up to 49, two and a half over 46.5.
Now the room. The Formula has UCLA 30-20 and likes Michigan State and the Over. Next Man Up has UCLA 33-15 and likes the Bruins. Letdown Watch has UCLA 32-17 and the Over. In The Trenches likes UCLA too. Follow The Money skips the side and takes the Under.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-three to 15. The Bruins are unbeaten, at home, on Homecoming. What is everybody else watching?"
The Formula answered: "A team with 83.2 penalty yards a game laying two touchdowns. I'm watching the flags."
Letdown Watch added: "Thirty-two to 17. That clears the 14. I'll take the Bruins and I'll take my chances."
Follow The Money: "And I'll take the Under, because Dieffenbach's first start finished 17-7. Some scripts are short films."
Bottom of the card: an unbeaten home team with a quarterback question and a penalty problem, against a road team that keeps losing by a field goal. Callbacks are cute, Shay says. I'll take the 14.
UCLA Bruins 31, Michigan State Spartans 18. Michigan State Spartans cover the 14. Over 46.5.