Auburn just beat No. 1 Georgia on a field goal at the horn. Lacey Bellamy has reenacted that kick at every tailgate since, and she plays the kicker. Every time.
No. 18 LSU (5-2) at Auburn (4-2), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It's an SEC game, Tiger against Tiger. DraftKings has LSU Tigers −7 with a total of 50.5. My card: Auburn Tigers +7, Under 50.5, and a final of LSU Tigers 28, Auburn Tigers 22.
Lacey speaks for Auburn, a former sorority president who can reenact every Iron Bowl. "War Eagle, y'all! Alex McPherson from 34 yards, time expired, 27-24 over Georgia. Byrum Brown ran 26 times for 115 yards. Cece, sugar, bring your beignets."
Cece Thibodeaux speaks for LSU, a Baton Rouge socialite who scores every defense on a spice scale. "Bless your heart, Lacey. We just shut out Mississippi State 31-0. Sam Leavitt went 31 of 38 for four touchdowns. Our run defense allows 2.82 yards a carry. That's Saturday night in Death Valley, cher."
Both have a case, and LSU's is the stronger one to win the game. The purple Tigers score 40.4 points a game, and Princewill Umanmielen has eight sacks. My final has LSU by six.
But that's why Auburn is the pick. LSU is 0-2 on the road this year: 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. Auburn is 3-1 in one-score games. And there's a question on the LSU side: Jackson Harris, the team leader with 456 receiving yards, left the Mississippi State game with an apparent ankle injury in the third quarter. Watch the SEC availability report. A home team riding the biggest win of its year, getting a full touchdown, is a nice place to be.
The caveat is the pass rush. Auburn has allowed 23 sacks, and LSU's defense has 24. If Umanmielen lives in the backfield, Brown has to make plays with his legs all day.
Why the Under? Both defenses can play. LSU's run defense is nasty, and Auburn allows 21.8 points a game. The last LSU trip to Jordan-Hare, in 2022, finished 21-17. My 28-22 adds up to 50, half a point under 50.5.
Now the room, and not one voice is laying the seven. The Formula has LSU 29-23 and the Over. Next Man Up has LSU 27-21 and likes the Under. Letdown Watch has LSU 28-22, the exact same final as mine. Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out.
Next Man Up opened: "Three of us picking a side, and nobody wants LSU minus seven. Somebody tell Baton Rouge."
The Formula answered: "We don't dislike LSU. We dislike seven."
Follow The Money stirred the pot: "I'm sitting this one out. Next Man Up, 27-21? Did you bring a defense or a blanket?"
Next Man Up: "Both. It's late October."
Bottom of the card: a better road team that hasn't won on the road, a home team with a fresh upset, and a full touchdown. Bring a ladder for the oaks, Lacey. I'll take the points.
LSU Tigers 28, Auburn Tigers 22. Auburn Tigers cover the 7. Under 50.5.