Louisiana ran for 243 yards last week and held the ball for more than 13 minutes longer than Troy. Southern Miss allows 249 rushing yards a game, 137th in FBS. Mimi Fontenot dances zydeco. Dee Broussard calls everybody "sugar." Somebody's getting two-stepped on.
Louisiana (5-2) at Southern Miss (1-5), Saturday at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Renasant Stadium in Hattiesburg. It's a Sun Belt game and Homecoming at The Rock. DraftKings has Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns −11.5 with a total of 52.5. My card: Southern Miss Golden Eagles +11.5, Over 52.5, and a final of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 31, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 22.
Mimi speaks for Louisiana, a Lafayette accountant. "Bless your heart, Dee, and I mean it sweetly. D'Wayne Winfield has 463 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. We beat Troy 33-6. That's a full dance card, cher."
Dee speaks for Southern Miss. "You're a doll, Mimi. Mario Sanders II caught six passes for 106 yards last week. He's the sweetest thing in Hattiesburg since sweet tea, sugar. And it's Homecoming."
Louisiana wins this, and my final says by nine. The Ragin' Cajuns run for 200.1 yards a game against a run defense ranked 137th, and they hold the ball 33:27 a game, 11th in FBS. But that's also why Southern Miss is the pick. A team that runs the ball and drains the clock shortens the game, and short games are hard to win by two touchdowns.
Southern Miss can throw, too. The Golden Eagles throw for 259.8 yards a game, 39th in FBS, and Louisiana's pass defense ranks 45th. Landry Lyddy has more than 1,000 yards. Southern Miss lost by three at Tulane. And Louisiana's only league loss was a 32-31 game at Louisiana Tech.
The worry for Southern Miss is finishing. The Golden Eagles convert 32.9% of third downs, and they turned it over on downs three times in a 23-13 loss to Arkansas State.
Why the Over? Louisiana's run game should score on this defense, and Southern Miss's passing game should get its share. My 31-22 adds up to 53, half a point over 52.5. Every voice in the room calls the Over.
Now the room, and it's mostly on the home team. The Formula has my exact final, 31-22, and likes Southern Miss. Next Man Up has Louisiana 30-23 and likes the Golden Eagles too. Letdown Watch has 32-21 and stays with Southern Miss, and In The Trenches likes them as well. Follow The Money is the lone Ragin' Cajun.
Letdown Watch opened: "Follow The Money, I've got 32-21. That's eleven points. The line is 11.5. How are you on Louisiana?"
Follow The Money answered: "Homecoming crowds go home early when it's 21-0. I'm counting on the band leaving at halftime."
Next Man Up added: "Thirty to 23. Southern Miss throws it, Louisiana runs it, and the clock runs out on the Cajuns."
The Formula: "Same score as the boss. I'll save Mimi a dance and take the points."
Bottom of the card: a road favorite that runs the clock, a home underdog that can throw, and a number big enough to fit both. Bring earplugs, Dee says. I'll take the 11.5.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 31, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 22. Southern Miss Golden Eagles cover the 11.5. Over 52.5.