Liberty has won five straight. Kennesaw State has won the last three meetings with Liberty. Somebody's record is about to get a footnote.
Liberty (5-1) at Kennesaw State (1-5), Thursday at 7:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. It's a Conference USA game and Gold Rush night in Kennesaw. DraftKings has Liberty Flames −11.5 with a total of 49.5. My card: Kennesaw State Owls +11.5, Under 49.5, and a final of Liberty Flames 29, Kennesaw State Owls 18.
Gideon Fairweather speaks for Liberty, a Lynchburg youth pastor who coaches middle-school football. "Praise the Lord and pass the program! Deshawn Purdie has eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Makai Jackson gets more than 23 yards a catch. We beat Sam Houston 35-3."
Ximena Holcombe-Reyes speaks for Kennesaw State, a Marietta coder who has cheered the Owls since version 1.0. "Cute run, Gideon. Our repo has three straight wins against you, including 48-42 in double overtime in Lynchburg last November. Version history doesn't lie."
Here's the thing: Liberty is the better team, and my final says so by 11. The Flames run for 223.0 yards a game and allow 15.3 points, both 15th in FBS. Their only loss was 20-13 at James Madison. Kennesaw State has lost five straight.
But 11.5 is a big number, and the Owls lose close. Three of their five losses came by three points or fewer, including last week's 24-21 loss at Missouri State on a field goal at the final horn. Rickie Collins completes 70.1% of his passes and leads the Owls in rushing, and he threw for 260 yards in that game. These are the defending Conference USA champions. They know how to hang around.
Liberty gives up 85.8 penalty yards a game, 137th in FBS. That's a lot of free yards.
The danger for the Owls is the red zone. Opponents score on 95.5% of trips inside the 20, 132nd in FBS. If Liberty gets there often, this gets out of hand.
Why the Under? Liberty's defense allows 15.3 points a game, and its offense runs the ball and drains the clock. My 29-18 adds up to 47, two and a half under 49.5. Four of the five handicappers agree on the Under.
Now the room, and it's a real fight on the side. The Formula has Liberty 27-19 and likes the Owls. Next Man Up has it even closer, Liberty 24-20, and likes Kennesaw State and the Under. On the other side, Letdown Watch has Liberty 32-15, Follow The Money has 31-19 and the Over, and In The Trenches is with Liberty too.
Letdown Watch fired first: "Next Man Up, Liberty by four? They beat Sam Houston 35-3."
Next Man Up answered: "And Kennesaw State beat them three years running. Go check the series."
Follow The Money stepped in: "I'm the only Over in the room, and I'd like it noted that I'm also right."
The Formula didn't look up: "You're at 50. That's half a point from being wrong."
Bottom of the card: a good road team laying a lot of points to a home underdog that loses by a field goal. Wear gold, keep it close, and take the points.
Liberty Flames 29, Kennesaw State Owls 18. Kennesaw State Owls cover the 11.5. Under 49.5.