Kansas State ran for 359 yards last week. Arizona State gave up six sacks. Hattie Brandvold names every drive after a crop. Skylar Vanterpool's motto is "Hydrate and Dominate." It's going to be a long, warm afternoon in Tempe.
Kansas State (4-2) at Arizona State (3-3), Saturday at 3:45 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Mountain America Stadium. It's a Big 12 game and ASU's Blackout, so wear black. DraftKings has Kansas State Wildcats −3.5 with a total of 56.5. My card: Kansas State Wildcats −3.5, Over 56.5, and a final of Kansas State Wildcats 32, Arizona State Sun Devils 27.
Hattie speaks for K-State, an agronomy grad. "You still can't rush a harvest, darlin'. Avery Johnson just became the school's all-time leader in combined passing and rushing yards. Joe Jackson ran for 159. That's a bumper crop."
Skylar speaks for Arizona State. "Bring sunscreen, Hattie. Mikey Keene threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns in one half at Texas Tech. And Arizona State leads this series 6-1. Hydrate and dominate."
Why K-State? Because the Wildcats run the ball, and Arizona State can't stop the run. The Sun Devils allow 4.80 yards a carry and 32.0 points a game. K-State trailed Kansas 17-7 and still won 35-24, piling up 568 yards. Kicker Luis Rodriguez made four field goals, including a 51-yarder, so even stalled drives come away with points. My final has the Wildcats by five.
Arizona State also has a quarterback decision to make. Kenny Dillingham pulled Cutter Boley for Keene at halftime of the 53-25 loss in Lubbock and hasn't named a starter. ASU's blockers have allowed 15 sacks, and K-State has 13.
The caveat is Johnson's shoulder. He went down after a 59-yard run against Kansas, pointing to his right shoulder, but he returned and said he just had the wind knocked out of him. Watch the Big 12 report. Arizona State also throws for 276.7 yards a game, so the Sun Devils can answer.
Why the Over? K-State's ground game should move at will, and Arizona State's passing game can keep pace. My 32-27 adds up to 59, two and a half over 56.5.
Now the room, and four voices call the Over. The Formula has the exact same 32-27 and stays with K-State. Next Man Up has the biggest number, 33-29, and likes the Over most. Letdown Watch has 31-26. In The Trenches likes K-State's ground game and the Wildcats. Follow The Money sits this one out.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-three to 29. Sixty-two points. Avery Johnson in the desert. Somebody hydrate the scoreboard operator."
Follow The Money answered: "I'm sitting this one out. But Arizona State leads the series six and one, friend."
In The Trenches shot back: "Three hundred fifty-nine rushing yards last week. Your series history doesn't tackle anybody."
The Formula added: "Same score as the boss. Plant in the spring, harvest in the fall, lay the 3.5."
Bottom of the card: a road team that runs it against a defense that can't stop the run, with a home quarterback question. Saturday's forecast, Hattie says, is sunny with a chance of Avery Johnson. I'll lay the 3.5.
Kansas State Wildcats 32, Arizona State Sun Devils 27. Kansas State Wildcats cover the 3.5. Over 56.5.