James Madison is 7-0 and climbing a mountain on a Thursday night. Zeb Coldiron has whittled a welcome sign for the occasion. It says, more or less, "Bring a jacket."
James Madison (7-0) at App State (4-2), Thursday at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. It's Family Weekend on the mountain. DraftKings has James Madison Dukes −10.5 with a total of 56.5. My card: James Madison Dukes −10.5, Under 56.5, and a final of James Madison Dukes 35, App State Mountaineers 21.
Lila Shenandoah speaks for JMU, a former cheer captain who turns every number into a chant. "Give me a 42.9! That's points per game, third in FBS. Camden Coleman has 13 touchdown passes and one interception. Give me an 8-0, y'all!"
Zeb speaks for App State, and he talks like a man who has carved a lot of porch posts. "Ma'am, App leads this series 14-6. My granddaddy carved every one of them. And we just came back from 24-14 down at halftime to beat Coastal 35-32."
That comeback was real. Jaquari Lewis ran for four touchdowns, Malachi Singleton went 12 of 14, and backup Henry Hasselbeck ran 21 times for 125 yards. App State hasn't said how it will split the quarterback snaps.
So why JMU by more than 10.5? Because the Dukes win in every way a team can win. They run for 223.6 yards a game, 14th in FBS. George Pettaway has seven touchdowns. They're 3-0 on the road. And the last meeting wasn't close: JMU won 58-10 in Harrisonburg last November. The matchup to watch is App's ground game, the thing that won it the Coastal game, against a JMU run defense allowing 3.31 yards a carry with 18 sacks.
The worry is the flags. JMU gives up 71.1 penalty yards a game, 119th in FBS.
Why the Under? It's a half-point call, and I'll own that. My 35-21 adds up to 56, just under 56.5. JMU runs the ball, and running teams burn the clock. App's two losses came with 31 and 3 points. If JMU's defense holds the Mountaineers to around three touchdowns, the number stays out of reach.
Now the room, and for once nobody wants App State. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch are all on JMU −10.5, while Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out. The fight is over the total. Letdown Watch has the widest margin on the board, JMU 37-17, and that's an Under. Next Man Up has JMU 36-22, which adds to 58, and calls the Over. The Formula has 33-22 and the Under.
Letdown Watch opened: "Next Man Up, you've got App scoring 22 against a defense that allows 3.31 a carry? Who's carrying it, the mascot?"
Next Man Up fired back: "And you've got JMU at 37 and the game still staying low. Pick a lane."
Follow The Money just shrugged: "I'm sitting this one out. Somebody has to keep you two honest."
Bottom of the card: an unbeaten team that wins on the road, wins on the ground, and won the last meeting 58-10. Bring a jacket, bring a cowbell, and lay the points.
James Madison Dukes 35, App State Mountaineers 21. James Madison Dukes cover the 10.5. Under 56.5.