Iowa State hasn't played in Tucson since 1966. Twyla Hemmingsen, an Iowa State fan who forecasts every Saturday from her kitchen "weather center," says the barometer is falling. Inez Paloverde, an Arizona fan and desert-sunrise optimist, says the forecast is always sunny and this week it's red.
Iowa State (3-3) at No. 25 Arizona (5-1), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Tucson. It's a Big 12 game, it's Homecoming and it's the 100th year of Bear Down. Both teams are coming off a bye. DraftKings has Arizona Wildcats −10.5 with a total of 50.5. My card: Iowa State Cyclones +10.5, Over 50.5, and a final of Arizona Wildcats 30, Iowa State Cyclones 21.
Inez speaks for Arizona. "Noah Fifita has 16 touchdown passes and four interceptions. We won 52-31 at West Virginia, and Isaiah Mizell caught six passes for 183 yards. This is our best start since 2014. I'm watering the cactus with joy."
Twyla speaks for Iowa State. "Cyclone warning in effect, Inez! Aiden Flora has 680 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 90 carries. He's the jet stream. And we beat you 39-14 last season."
Why the Cyclones? My final has Arizona by nine, and you're getting 10.5. Iowa State runs for 181.5 yards a game, and Flora is the kind of back who keeps the clock moving and keeps a game close. Arizona's defense allows 19.0 points a game, so Arizona isn't likely to win a shootout by three scores, either. Fifita is excellent, but Iowa State's pass defense allows 198.5 yards a game, which is respectable.
The caveats are real. Iowa State is 0-2 on the road, and it was held to 200 yards in a 24-10 loss at No. 8 BYU. Receiver Dominic Overby, who had 10 catches for 212 yards, left that game in the first quarter with a knee injury, and his status hasn't been announced. Arizona's run defense allows 3.34 yards a carry, which is exactly the matchup that could stall Flora.
Why the Over? Fifita's arm and Mizell's big plays carry most of it. My 30-21 adds up to 51, half a point over 50.5.
Now the room, and it's three to one for Iowa State. The Formula has Arizona 30-23 and likes both the Cyclones and the Over. Letdown Watch has 29-22 and likes Iowa State. In The Trenches likes the Cyclones too. Next Man Up has Arizona 31-20, an 11-point game, and takes the Wildcats. Follow The Money sits this one out. Four call the Over.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-one to 20. Best start since 2014, Homecoming, wear red. Lay it."
The Formula answered: "Thirty to 23. Flora runs, clock moves, game stays close. Your 11 points require Iowa State to forget how to run."
Letdown Watch: "Twenty-nine to 22. Sixty years since their last visit. Iowa State is overdue for something."
Follow The Money: "I'm sitting this one out. Bring sunscreen either way."
Bottom of the card: a home team on its best start in years, a road team with a back who shortens games, and 10.5 points of cushion. Barometer's falling, Inez. I'll take the 10.5.
Arizona Wildcats 30, Iowa State Cyclones 21. Iowa State Cyclones cover the 10.5. Over 50.5.