Floyd of Rosedale is a bronze pig, he's been on the line since 1935, and Orrin Kalvelage has worn the same sweater every week hoping to bring him home again. Torvald Engebretsen owns enough coats to lend one out.
No. 15 Iowa (5-1) at Minnesota (4-2), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1 at Huntington Bank Stadium. It's a Big Ten game and Homecoming week in Minneapolis. DraftKings has Iowa Hawkeyes −7 with a total of 41.5. My card: Iowa Hawkeyes −7, Over 41.5, and a final of Iowa Hawkeyes 28, Minnesota Golden Gophers 18.
Orrin speaks for Iowa, from farm country. "Same sweater, same defense. We allow 14.5 points a game, eighth in FBS, and 84.7 rushing yards, seventh. Kamari Moulton ran for a career-high 208 at Washington. And Iowa went 9-1 against Minnesota from 2016 to 2025."
Torvald speaks for Minnesota, a ski-hill Gopher. "Orrin, I respect a man with commitment. Our pass defense ranks ninth, allowing 159.7 yards a game. And Minnesota leads the all-time series 63-54-2. Floyd's from up here originally. Well, he's a bronze pig. But still."
Why Iowa by more than seven? Because Minnesota can't run. The Gophers gain 104.8 rushing yards a game, 129th in FBS, and managed 25 at Purdue in a 41-13 loss. Against an Iowa run defense this good, that puts everything on Drake Lindsey. Iowa held Washington to minus-3 rushing yards with six sacks. And P.J. Fleck is 1-8 in his career against Iowa, which Orrin mentions roughly once per sweater. My final has Iowa by 10.
The caveat is the Iowa quarterback. Hank Brown didn't start at Washington, and Iowa hasn't announced its starter. Jeremy Hecklinski went 14 of 19 for 202 yards and three touchdowns in that game, so the backup has been good, but it's a question. And Minnesota has real wins this year: 27-24 at Washington and 20-14 over Michigan.
Why the Over? It's a low number. Iowa scored 41 at Washington and 41 against Minnesota last year. Minnesota's red-zone defense ranks 102nd, so Iowa can finish drives. My 28-18 adds up to 46, four and a half over 41.5.
Now the room, and four voices are on Iowa. Letdown Watch has the biggest number, 31-16, and likes the Hawkeyes and the Over. The Formula has 29-19, Next Man Up has 27-19, and both like the Over. Follow The Money likes the Hawkeyes but calls the Under. In The Trenches sits this one out.
Letdown Watch opened: "Thirty-one to 16. Minnesota ran for 25 yards in its last game. Twenty-five. I could run for 25 in this sweater."
Follow The Money answered: "Iowa and the Under. It's Iowa. Eventually somebody punts."
The Formula shot back: "Somebody punted for 41 points at Washington? Twenty-nine to 19, friend."
Next Man Up added: "Two weeks off for both. Minnesota spent its two weeks looking for a run game."
Bottom of the card: a top-10 run defense against an offense that can't run, a coach who keeps losing this rivalry, and a low total. Same sweater, Orrin. I'll lay the seven.
Iowa Hawkeyes 28, Minnesota Golden Gophers 18. Iowa Hawkeyes cover the 7. Over 41.5.