Hawai'i is 1-6. Northern Illinois is 0-6. They have never played each other, and kickoff is 9:30 a.m. Hawai'i time. Kainoa Akana-Baird says his body clock thinks it's breakfast. Nola Brandvik says it's flat in DeKalb, and there's corn.
Hawai'i (1-6) at Northern Illinois (0-6), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on MW+ at Huskie Stadium. It's a Mountain West game and Hall of Fame Weekend at NIU. DraftKings has Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors −4.5 with a total of 44.5. My card: Northern Illinois Huskies +4.5, Under 44.5, and a final of Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 23, Northern Illinois Huskies 21.
Kainoa speaks for Hawai'i, an O'ahu big-wave surf instructor. "Aloha, cousin! Micah Alejado has 1,862 passing yards. We throw on about 64% of our plays, for 268 yards a game, 32nd in FBS. I'll trade you a malasada for an ear of sweet corn."
Nola speaks for Northern Illinois, a very calm DeKalb agricultural scientist who talks about the Huskies like a corn crop. "Telly Johnson Jr. ran 16 times for 139 yards at Wyoming. Strong stalk. He's the best part of the crop right now. And our pass defense ranks 33rd."
Here's why the home team is the pick. Hawai'i's offense is the pass, and Northern Illinois defends the pass. Hawai'i has also allowed 20 sacks. On the other side, Johnson gets a Hawai'i run defense ranked 112th. And the Rainbow Warriors just lost 21-10 to New Mexico. A long trip, an early body clock and a road favorite giving 4.5 points: my final has Hawai'i by two.
The worry for Northern Illinois is finishing. The Huskies score on only 46.7% of red-zone trips, 138th in FBS. They're still looking for their first win under interim coach Rob Harley, though they've been close, including a 28-24 loss to Illinois State. Hawai'i's lone win came 29-19 over New Mexico State.
Why the Under? Northern Illinois struggles to turn drives into touchdowns, and its pass defense slows Hawai'i's air raid. Hawai'i scored 10 points last week. My 23-21 adds up to 44, half a point under 44.5.
Now the room, and it's a toss-up on the score but not on the side. Next Man Up has Northern Illinois winning outright, 22-20, and likes the Huskies. Letdown Watch has Hawai'i 23-22 and likes the Huskies with the points. The Formula has Hawai'i 25-21 and takes Northern Illinois too. Follow The Money likes Northern Illinois and the Under. In The Trenches sits this one out.
Next Man Up opened: "Twenty-two to 20, Huskies. First win of the year, Hall of Fame Weekend. Nola's crop comes in."
Letdown Watch answered: "I've got Hawai'i by one. Same pick, though. A 1-6 team shouldn't be laying 4.5 to anybody."
Letdown Watch turned to The Formula: "You've got Hawai'i by four and you're still on the Huskies? Welcome to the club."
Follow The Money: "First meetings are like first plantings. You find out a lot."
Bottom of the card: two winless-in-league teams, a long trip west to east, and an underdog with the pass defense to match up. Stay hydrated, Kainoa. I'll take the 4.5.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 23, Northern Illinois Huskies 21. Northern Illinois Huskies cover the 4.5. Under 44.5.