Arkansas State closed out its last win with a 14-play drive that ate the final 7:21. Ty Doucet-Harmon, an Arkansas State fan who guides duck hunters through the flooded Delta timber, calls that sitting in the blind till the birds come in. Malik Overstreet, a Georgia State fan who knows every MARTA stop, would like the train to run on time.
Georgia State (4-2) at Arkansas State (3-4), Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro. It's a Sun Belt game and Homecoming, with the theme "Into the Howlverse." DraftKings has Georgia State Panthers −2.5 with a total of 56.5. My card: Arkansas State Red Wolves +2.5, Over 56.5, and a final of Georgia State Panthers 30, Arkansas State Red Wolves 29.
Ty speaks for Arkansas State. "Welcome to the country, city boy. We beat Southern Miss 23-13 and won time of possession by about 20 minutes. Clune Van Andel made field goals from 29, 40 and 44. No traffic out here, just geese."
Malik speaks for Georgia State. "We have duck in Atlanta too, my friend. It comes on a plate. Cameran Brown has 13 touchdown passes. Rodshaun Dorsey has seven touchdown catches. Xavier Esqillion has seven sacks. That man never sits in traffic."
Why the Red Wolves? My final has Georgia State by one, and you're getting two and a half at home. Both of Georgia State's losses came on the road, including 49-22 at James Madison last week. Arkansas State's pass defense ranks 31st, and the Red Wolves are plus-3 in turnover margin. And the Red Wolves won four of the six meetings from 2016 through 2025.
The caveat is the ground game. Georgia State runs for 206 yards a game, and Arkansas State allows 195.4 rushing yards a game, 124th. The Panthers also convert 47.5% of their third downs, against a defense that allows 45.9%. Dell McGee's offense gains 452.7 yards and scores 36.5 points a game.
Why the Over? Georgia State's offense is the real thing, and Arkansas State's run defense can't stop the run. My 30-29 adds up to 59, two and a half over 56.5.
Now the room, and it's split three to two. Next Man Up has Arkansas State winning 31-30 and likes both the Red Wolves and the Over. The Formula has Georgia State 29-28 and takes the Red Wolves. Letdown Watch has Arkansas State 29-27 and likes the Red Wolves, but calls the Under. Follow The Money likes the Panthers and the Over. In The Trenches likes Georgia State.
Follow The Money opened: "The Panthers. Georgia State runs for 206 a game into a run defense ranked 124th. Mind the gap."
Next Man Up answered: "Thirty-one to 30, Red Wolves. Homecoming and a Furry 5K. The dogs are on our side."
The Formula weighed in on Letdown Watch: "Twenty-nine to 27 and the Under? Everybody else in here wants points."
Letdown Watch: "Quack-quack, wrong pond. I'm sticking."
Bottom of the card: a road team that hasn't won on the road, a home team that takes care of the ball, and a field goal of cushion in a one-point game. Mind the gap. I'll take the 2.5.
Georgia State Panthers 30, Arkansas State Red Wolves 29. Arkansas State Red Wolves cover the 2.5. Over 56.5.