Memphis turned it over six times at Tulane and lost. ECU blew a 14-0 lead at UAB and lost in overtime. Thursday night, somebody gets to stop talking about last week.
East Carolina (3-3) at Memphis (5-2), Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. It's an American game, and SportsCenter on Campus is setting up on Tiger Lane. DraftKings has Memphis Tigers −10 with a total of 54.5. My card: Memphis Tigers −10, Under 54.5, and a final of Memphis Tigers 33, East Carolina Pirates 21.
Otis Delaney-Crum speaks for Memphis, a blues guitarist who sings bass in his gospel choir. "That Tulane game hurt like a broken string in the middle of a solo. You tune up and play the next song. And the next song is at home, where we're 3-0."
Bart Quidley speaks for ECU, in a purple tricorn hat. "Ahoy! The Pirates lead this series 18-8, Otis. I'm grading costumes on national TV, and your tiger had better be brushed."
The case for Memphis starts with the offense. The Tigers gain 512.6 yards a game, sixth in FBS. Marcus Stokes has 18 touchdown passes, Jaylin Carter has 780 rushing yards and eight scores, and even at Tulane, Stokes threw for 306 yards while Carter ran for 135. Six turnovers sank that boat. Clean that up at home and Memphis is a different team.
ECU's problem is finishing. The Pirates convert 31.3% of third downs, 125th in FBS, and they rank 125th in red-zone scoring. Memphis ranks sixth in red-zone defense. That is the matchup that decides whether this is a ten-point game or a twelve-point game, and my final says twelve.
The caveat: ECU can run. TJ Engleman Jr. carried 26 times for 104 yards at UAB, and the Pirates' pass defense allows 187.5 yards a game, 34th in FBS. If Engleman keeps the Memphis offense on the bench, the Pirates can hang around.
Why the Under? ECU's offense doesn't finish drives, and Emory Williams has 655 passing yards this season. That's not a team built to trade touchdowns. My 33-21 adds up to 54, half a point under 54.5. It's close, and I'll say so.
Now the room. Next Man Up has the biggest Memphis number, 35-20, and calls the Over. Letdown Watch has Memphis 32-20, and In The Trenches likes the Tigers. The Formula has Memphis 31-22, a nine-point game, so it goes with ECU +10. Follow The Money skips the side and calls the Over.
The Formula fired first: "Ten points? Memphis just lost 31-17 at Tulane. I'll take the Pirates and the points."
Next Man Up answered: "They lost because of six turnovers. Bart's hat isn't going to force six more."
Then Letdown Watch looked at Follow The Money: "No side, just the Over? You came to a football game to watch the scoreboard?"
Follow The Money: "Somebody has to. Family meeting after the game."
Bottom of the card: a home team that hasn't lost at home, an offense that can roll, and a visitor that struggles to finish drives. Otis plays the next song. I'll lay the ten.
Memphis Tigers 33, East Carolina Pirates 21. Memphis Tigers cover the 10. Under 54.5.