Last November, Cal drove 75 yards in the final minutes to stun SMU 38-35 in Berkeley. SMU has not forgotten. SMU has, in fact, had it altered and tailored.
California (3-4) at No. 23 SMU (5-1), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on CW at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. It's an ACC game and Fan Appreciation day, so wear red. DraftKings has SMU Mustangs −18.5 with a total of 53.5. My card: California Golden Bears +18.5, Under 53.5, and a final of SMU Mustangs 35, California Golden Bears 18.
Tatum Delacroix-Price speaks for SMU, a Highland Park boutique owner who grades the other sideline's outfits. "Welcome to the Boulevard, darling. Kevin Jennings completes 72.9% of his passes. We're 4-0 at home and we've outscored visitors 138-63. Saddle up or sit down, sugar."
Quentin Oyelaran-Fitch speaks for Cal, a Berkeley philosophy Ph.D. student with a picket sign for every bad play call. Today's sign reads "REMEMBER NOVEMBER (RESPECTFULLY)."
Let's be honest about the last week. Cal lost 41-7 at home to Wake Forest, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 110 yards. SMU beat Virginia 23-13. These are not two teams heading in the same direction, and my final has SMU by 17.
So why Cal? Because 18.5 is a mountain, and SMU has a habit of leaving points on the field. The Mustangs give up 69.0 penalty yards a game, 114th in FBS, and red-zone touchdowns are the other thing Rhett Lashlee wants fixed. Cal also throws for 288.1 yards a game, 15th in FBS, so the Bears can move it through the air even when they're behind. And Sagapolutele is the same quarterback who led that drive last November.
The worry is the matchup. SMU's pass defense allows 164.8 yards a game, 11th, and SMU has 18 sacks while allowing only seven. Cal's run game ranks 137th at 90.3 yards a game, so the Bears are one-dimensional. If the Mustangs get to Sagapolutele early, this turns into the 38-6 game from 2024.
Why the Under? Cal can't run, which takes away the clock-eating drives that pile up points, and SMU's red-zone trouble trims touchdowns into field goals. My 35-18 adds up to 53, half a point under 53.5.
Now the room. Next Man Up has the exact same final as mine, 35-18, and three voices like the Under. The Formula has SMU 33-20 and likes Cal, and In The Trenches sits this one out. Letdown Watch goes big for SMU at 37-15. Follow The Money likes SMU too and is the lone voice for the Over.
Letdown Watch fired first: "Thirty-seven to 15. Cal just lost 41-7 at home. Who is taking the points here?"
The Formula answered: "Me. And the boss. And Next Man Up. Count the hands, friend."
Follow The Money waved from the other side: "SMU and the Over. I'm alone, but I'm well dressed."
Next Man Up added: "That's a lot of optimism, Money. Tatum would grade that outfit a C."
Bottom of the card: the better team, a huge number, and a home favorite that hands out penalty yards and settles for field goals. Quentin keeps the sign up. I'll take the points.
SMU Mustangs 35, California Golden Bears 18. California Golden Bears cover the 18.5. Under 53.5.