Siobhan Dunleavy argues every play like a moot-court case. Wendell Quist charts the flight of every punt. Saturday on The Flats, the gavel meets gravity.
Boston College (3-3) at Georgia Tech (2-4), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network at Bobby Dodd Stadium. It's an ACC game and Homecoming in Atlanta. DraftKings has Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets −5.5 with a total of 49.5. My card: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets −5.5, Under 49.5, and a final of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28, Boston College Eagles 21.
Wendell speaks for Georgia Tech, an aerospace engineer. "Alberto Mendoza completes 71.2% of his passes. That's a very accurate launch angle. He went 29 of 38 for 335 yards at Virginia Tech. And we won 36-34 at Boston College last year. I've re-run that one. It still works."
Siobhan speaks for Boston College, a former debate champion. "All rise. Exhibit A: Mason McKenzie, former Division II quarterback, 1,262 passing yards and 444 rushing yards. Exhibit B: we just beat Pittsburgh 27-21. The defense rests. Well, ours doesn't."
Georgia Tech is 2-4, but don't let that fool you. The win over No. 23 Duke made them 8-1 against ranked ACC teams under Brent Key. At home, on Homecoming, with Mendoza and Jordan Allen, who caught 10 for 120 at Virginia Tech, this is a passing game that can move on anybody.
Why Georgia Tech by more than 5.5? Boston College struggles to finish. The Eagles score on only 60% of red-zone trips, 135th in FBS. My final has the Jackets by seven.
The caveat is the Georgia Tech defense. It allows 179.0 rushing yards a game, 110th, and McKenzie leads BC in rushing. Georgia Tech is also minus-4 in turnovers and gives up 70.5 penalty yards a game, 117th. Free yards, as Siobhan says, are admissible evidence. And BC's pass defense ranks 18th, allowing 169.3 yards a game, so Mendoza won't have it easy.
Why the Under? BC's red-zone trouble trims points, and BC's pass defense slows Georgia Tech's best weapon. My 28-21 adds up to 49, half a point under 49.5.
Now the room. Next Man Up is my strongest ally, with Georgia Tech 28-19, and likes the Jackets and the Under. Follow The Money likes Georgia Tech but skips the total. Letdown Watch has 29-22 and the Over. The Formula has Georgia Tech 27-22, a five-point game, so it takes Boston College +5.5. In The Trenches sits this one out.
The Formula opened: "Five points. The line is 5.5. BC's quarterback runs, and Georgia Tech can't stop the run. I'll take the half point."
Next Man Up answered: "BC scores in the red zone 60% of the time. You can't take the half point if you can't take the touchdown."
Letdown Watch weighed in: "Twenty-nine to 22. Homecoming crowd, Mendoza throwing it. That's an Over."
Follow The Money: "Same Jackets as you, Letdown Watch. The total is your problem."
Bottom of the card: a home team with an accurate quarterback against a road team that can't finish drives. Court is in session Saturday, and the verdict is Georgia Tech. I'll lay the 5.5.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28, Boston College Eagles 21. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets cover the 5.5. Under 49.5.