Boise State's quarterback has 13 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Washington State's quarterback made his first career start last week. Thatcher Bluestem eats blue pancakes. Hank Palouse drives a combine and keeps game tapes in a shoebox in the cab.
No. 21 Boise State (5-1) at Washington State (1-6), Saturday at 6:00 p.m. ET on USA Net at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium in Pullman. It's a Pac-12 game and Homecoming on the Palouse. DraftKings has Boise State Broncos −12.5 with a total of 50.5. My card: Washington State Cougars +12.5, Over 50.5, and a final of Boise State Broncos 31, Washington State Cougars 20.
Thatcher speaks for Boise State. "Hank, Maddux Madsen has zero interceptions. That's bluer than a cloudless October sky. Dylan Riley has 835 rushing yards. And we lead the country in time of possession."
Hank speaks for Washington State. "Owen Eshelman threw for 289 yards and ran for 136 in his first start, and led three straight touchdown drives late. That tape's a keeper. Come on over, Thatcher. Out here we eat our pancakes the color the Lord made them."
My final has Boise by 11, and that's the case for the Cougars. Boise holds the ball 36:41 a game, which means fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make big margins harder. Washington State's hope is through the air: Boise's pass defense allows 261.3 yards a game, 126th in FBS. Eshelman and Branden Ganashamoorthy, who caught 11 passes for 147 yards last week, fit that matchup. And Washington State's defense holds opponents to 37% on third down.
The worry for the Cougars is everything else. They're minus-7 in turnovers, their offense ranks 130th in yards, and Boise has committed only three turnovers in six games. Washington State hasn't said whether Eshelman or Caden Pinnick starts. If Boise's run game, 234.5 yards a game, gets rolling against a run defense allowing 158.3, this gets away.
Why the Over? Boise's offense converts 50.6% of third downs, and Washington State's passing game just scored 30 against an FBS team for the first time this year. My 31-20 adds up to 51, half a point over 50.5.
Now the room, and it's mostly on the home team. Next Man Up has Boise 30-21 and likes the Cougars. Letdown Watch has Boise 29-21 and likes them too, but calls the Under. Follow The Money takes Washington State too. The Formula has Boise 34-19 and likes the Broncos, and In The Trenches is with Boise.
The Formula opened: "Thirty-four to 19. Zero interceptions against a team that's minus-7. That's not a game, that's a lesson."
Next Man Up answered: "Thirty to 21. Boise holds the ball for 36 minutes. The fewer possessions, the harder it is to win big."
Letdown Watch turned on Follow The Money: "Welcome aboard the Cougars. Now tell me why you won't touch the total. Was the tape in the shoebox upside down?"
Follow The Money: "It's Homecoming, and the exclamation point is doing a lot of work. I'm riding it."
Bottom of the card: a better road team that keeps the ball and shortens the game, against a home quarterback who just found something. Wave the flag, Hank. I'll take the 12.5.
Boise State Broncos 31, Washington State Cougars 20. Washington State Cougars cover the 12.5. Over 50.5.