Baylor hasn't allowed more than 19 points in any game this season. Kansas has a homecoming parade Friday night, the first in seven years. Maggie Whitlock brought a tape measure. Fitz Calloway brought a basketball.
Baylor (4-2) at Kansas (2-4), Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET on TNT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. It's a Big 12 game and KU's 114th Homecoming. DraftKings has Baylor Bears −1.5 with a total of 54.5. My card: Kansas Jayhawks +1.5, Over 54.5, and a final of Baylor Bears 28, Kansas Jayhawks 27.
Maggie speaks for Baylor, a Waco interior designer who renovates roster weaknesses live on air. "Sugar, your run defense needs new drywall. Our defense has 22 sacks, and Gavin Freeman has 49 catches for 555 yards. He's a load-bearing wall."
Fitz speaks for Kansas, a hoops-first Lawrence native who converts every stat into basketball. "Maggie, Kansas has won its last four homecoming games. Bryson Hayes just returned a kickoff 95 yards. In my world, that's a coast-to-coast fast break."
Here's the game. Baylor's defense is the best thing on the field, but Baylor's offense just went 22 of 53 through the air in a 17-6 loss to TCU, and three long first-half drives ended in field-goal tries. Dave Aranda called it "embarrassing." Kansas runs for about 5.2 yards a carry. Baylor allows about 87 rushing yards a game. Something gives.
Why Kansas? Because my final has Baylor by one, and you're getting 1.5 with the home team on Homecoming. Isaiah Marshall threw for 151 yards and ran for 116 in the loss at Kansas State, and a facemask penalty wiped out his 45-yard touchdown run. That's a quarterback who can make plays against a good defense. And this is Lawrence, with a parade the night before.
The caveat: Kansas has lost nine turnovers and forced six, and Lance Leipold said after the K-State loss that the margin for error is very small. Baylor leads the series 19-4.
Why the Over? It's a half-point call. DJ Lagway threw four touchdowns in a 55-19 win at Arizona State two weeks before TCU, and Kansas can run. My 28-27 adds up to 55, half a point over 54.5.
Now the room, and it's as close as the game. Next Man Up has Kansas 28-27 outright and likes the Jayhawks. Letdown Watch has Kansas 27-25 and likes them too, but calls the Under. The Formula has Baylor 27-24 and likes the Under. Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out.
The Formula opened: "Twenty-seven to 24. Baylor's defense hasn't allowed more than 19 all year. You two picking Kansas outright are buying a parade ticket."
Next Man Up answered: "Kansas outright, 28-27. Baylor just scored six points. Six. That's not a defense problem, that's an offense problem."
Letdown Watch added: "And it's Homecoming. Ask Fitz about buzzer-beaters."
Follow The Money waved: "I'm sitting this one out. I'm not arguing with anybody today."
Bottom of the card: a stingy defense with a sputtering offense, on the road, giving points to a home team that runs the ball. Bring the paint swatches, Maggie. I'll take the 1.5.
Baylor Bears 28, Kansas Jayhawks 27. Kansas Jayhawks cover the 1.5. Over 54.5.