Army threw two passes last week and scored 56 points. Two. Somewhere a quarterback coach is still staring at the stat sheet.
Army (4-2) at Tulsa (4-3), Friday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at H. A. Chapman Stadium. It's an American game and Military Appreciation Night in Tulsa. DraftKings has Army Black Knights −1.5 with a total of 53.5. My card: Army Black Knights −1.5, Under 53.5, and a final of Army Black Knights 28, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 24.
Capt. (Ret.) Thaddeus Rourke speaks for Army, a retired logistics officer who reads every option pitch like a supply chain. "Mission brief: run the ball, protect the ball. We run for 357.5 yards a game, first in FBS. Cale Hellums has 13 rushing touchdowns. Outstanding execution."
Wiley Pettibone speaks for Tulsa, a petroleum-geology grad who calls every good drive a gusher. "Captain, we're plus-11 in turnover margin, third in FBS. Every option pitch is a chance for us to strike oil. And we beat Rice 38-17 last week."
That's the whole game in two quotes. Army ran for 479 yards on 60 carries against Florida Atlantic, and Hellums ran for 195 yards and five touchdowns. Tulsa's run defense ranks 121st, giving up 191.6 yards a game. On paper, that's a mismatch.
Why Army? Because the Black Knights don't beat themselves. They give up just 35.8 penalty yards a game, sixth in FBS, and hold the ball for 34:42 a game. Tulsa's offense converts 31.3% of third downs, 125th, so its possessions are going to be short and few. Army also won 49-7 here in 2024. My final has the Black Knights by four, enough to clear 1.5.
The caveat is the takeaways. Tulsa's defense lives on turnovers, and Kyran Duhon has six sacks. Baylor Hayes has thrown eight touchdowns and one interception, and he went 20 of 27 for three scores at Rice. Army's own third-down defense allows 52.1%, 124th, so if Tulsa gets the ball, it can move it.
Why the Under? Army keeps the clock running, and the fewer possessions a game has, the fewer points it has. My 28-24 adds up to 52, a point and a half under 53.5.
Now the room. Letdown Watch is the loudest voice for Army, at 30-21, and likes the Under too. Next Man Up has Army 26-24 and the Under. In The Trenches is with Army. Follow The Money likes Army but calls the Over. The Formula is the lone holdout. It has Army 27-26, a one-point game, so it takes Tulsa +1.5.
Letdown Watch started it: "Army by one? They scored on their first seven possessions last week."
The Formula answered: "Against Florida Atlantic. Tulsa has a defense that takes the ball away. One fumble and I'm a genius."
Follow The Money jumped in: "Army and the Over. They scored 56 last week. Points happen."
Next Man Up didn't even look up: "They threw two passes. The clock doesn't stop when you never throw it."
Bottom of the card: the best ground game in the country against a run defense that struggles, and a visitor that doesn't hand out free yards. Thaddeus stands at attention for the halftime show. I'll lay the 1.5.
Army Black Knights 28, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 24. Army Black Knights cover the 1.5. Under 53.5.