It's the Battle for the Wagon Wheel, and the two teams are a combined 3-11. Zip Grubbs says that doesn't matter on rivalry week. Ozzie Brannigan says he expected Zip to say that.
Akron (1-6) at Kent State (2-5), Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium. It's a MAC game, Powder Blue Out and Military Appreciation Day in Kent. DraftKings has Kent State Golden Flashes −3 with a total of 45.5. My card: Kent State Golden Flashes −3, Over 45.5, and a final of Kent State Golden Flashes 26, Akron Zips 22.
Zip speaks for Akron, a Rubber City polymer-science grad who measures football in tire tread. "Ozzie! Rivalry week! Donelius Johnson has 67 tackles, sixth in FBS. That's all-season radials! BOING!"
Ozzie speaks for Kent State, a pessimist who scores uniforms and fourth-down calls. "We lost 29-2 at South Florida. I expected it. Dru DeShields didn't throw an interception, though. I'm suspicious of progress."
Ozzie's suspicion is the whole case for Kent State. The Flashes score 12 points a game, 138th in FBS, and run for 2.93 yards a carry. But Akron allows 6.05 yards a carry and 200.4 rushing yards a game, 130th. If Kent State's run game is ever going to work, Ozzie says, it's this week, and he's saying it out loud, which he admits means it probably won't. My final says it does.
Why Kent State by more than a field goal? Turnovers. Akron is minus-7 in turnover margin, and Brayden Roggow has eight interceptions, four of them in last week's 34-14 loss at Miami (OH). Akron has also allowed 19 sacks, and Kent State has 15.
The caveat: Kent State is minus-4 itself, and it just scored two points. Jordan Gant has 452 rushing yards and four scores for Akron, and Akron won this game in 2023 and 2024.
Why the Over? Kent State's run game gets the best matchup it'll see all year, and Akron's turnovers mean short fields. The last meeting finished 42-35. My 26-22 adds up to 48, two and a half over 45.5.
Now the room, and every voice is on the Over. Letdown Watch has the biggest Kent State number, 29-20, and likes the Flashes. Next Man Up has 27-22. The Formula has Kent State 25-23, a two-point game, so it takes Akron +3, and In The Trenches likes the Zips. Follow The Money skips the side.
Letdown Watch opened: "Twenty-nine to 20. Akron threw four interceptions last week. The Wagon Wheel is staying in Kent."
The Formula answered: "Kent State scored two points last week. Two. I'll take the three and see who blinks."
Next Man Up turned on Follow The Money: "No side, Money? Just the Over and nothing else? Did Ozzie write your card?"
Follow The Money: "No, but he ordered a second powder-blue jersey for the nerves. I relate."
Bottom of the card: a home team with a pass rush against a road team that turns it over, and the best ground matchup Kent State will get all year. Keep the Wheel in Kent, Ozzie. I'll lay the three.
Kent State Golden Flashes 26, Akron Zips 22. Kent State Golden Flashes cover the 3. Over 45.5.