No. 24 SMU, rested and unbeaten at home, hosts a Virginia team whose secondary arrives short-handed
DALLAS — The second meeting in this young series has a clear question at its center: can a depleted Virginia secondary keep up with Kevin Jennings?
No. 24 SMU (4-1, 2-1 ACC) hosts Virginia (4-2, 2-1) at noon ET on CW, coming off an open week. The Mustangs are 3-0 at home. Their only loss came 41-31 at Louisville on Sept. 19.
Jennings has been sharp, completing 117 of 156 passes for 1,588 yards and 14 touchdowns, with five interceptions. Kendrick Raphael has six rushing touchdowns, and Yamir Knight leads the receivers with 29 catches for 367 yards. On defense, Marques White has 4.5 sacks. Rhett Lashlee, in his fifth season, calls the plays himself.
Virginia's defense will be stretched thin. Cornerback Omillio Agard and safety Brandyn Hillman are out, along with several reserves. That is a hard way to face an offense that ranks 37th in ESPN's Football Power Index efficiency ratings.
The Cavaliers' best weapon is ball security. Quarterback Beau Pribula has thrown 13 touchdown passes and just one interception for 1,074 yards. Jekail Middlebrook leads the ground game with 337 yards. Virginia beat Syracuse 28-25 last week to move to 2-1 in league play, but it has struggled away from Charlottesville, losing 38-7 at Florida State on Oct. 3.
Tony Elliott, in his fifth season, has Virginia playing composed football, and its defense, 40th in ESPN's index, is better than its injury report suggests. Still, keeping SMU's passing game in front of a patched-up secondary for four quarters is a tall ask.
The programs have met only once. SMU won 33-7 in Charlottesville on Nov. 23, 2024. They were supposed to meet in the 2021 Fenway Bowl, but that game was canceled.
History is on the hosts' side in other ways, too. SMU's Doak Walker won the Heisman Trophy in 1948, and the Mustangs claim national titles from 1935, 1981 and 1982. Virginia's high-water mark came under George Welsh, who coached from 1982 to 2000, and the Cavaliers won ACC titles in 1989 and 1995.
The weather in Dallas should be ideal at 57 degrees with light wind. Virginia hosts Duke on Oct. 23, and SMU welcomes California next Saturday.
Pribula can keep this close if he keeps protecting the ball. SMU's passing game against a short-handed secondary is the difference.
Our call: SMU 30, Virginia 21.